The role of currency, interest rates and liquidity in the surge in heritage assets

Article 1 — Macroeconomic Analysis

For a long time, the price of an old bottle seemed to be essentially determined by factors specific to the product: its age, its quality, its origin, its rarity, or the reputation of its producer.

This interpretation is no longer sufficient today.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, and even more so since the Covid-19 shock in 2020, heritage markets have evolved in an exceptional monetary environment: extremely low interest rates, massive asset purchases by central banks, balance sheet expansion, rising prices of financial and real estate assets, followed by a brutal return of inflation and rising rates from 2022 onwards.

In this context, gold, Bitcoin, fine wines, watches and certain rare spirits have experienced spectacular growth phases.

The phenomenon does not mean that these assets follow the same logic.

But there is a common question:

what happens when asset holders seek assets capable of retaining or increasing their value in an environment where liquid money yields very little, and then when rates suddenly rise?

It is this question that helps to understand part of the trajectory of whisky and, to a lesser extent, that of Cognac, Armagnac and other collectible spirits.

I. The first shock: 2008 and the transformation of the price of money

The 2008 financial crisis marked the beginning of a new monetary era.

Central banks sharply lowered their interest rates and progressively used quantitative easing policies.

The mechanism is simple.

When risk-free assets yield very little, capital seeks alternatives.

An institutional or private investor who can get 5% on a bond is not as willing to tie up their money in a bottle for ten years as when monetary investments yield 0% or almost.

The difference is fundamental.

The required return for holding an illiquid asset decreases when the opportunity cost of capital decreases.

Rare whisky benefits precisely from this characteristic.

A bottle offers no coupon.

It pays no dividends.

It produces no interest.

Its potential remuneration comes solely from its future appreciation.

When rates are very low, this lack of current return becomes less penalizing.

When rates rise again, it becomes much more significant.

II. Covid-19: the second accelerator

The year 2020 constituted a much more powerful shock.

To avoid economic collapse, central banks and governments implemented extremely expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.

Rates were kept very low while asset purchases increased sharply.

At the same time, a significant portion of wealthy households' savings could no longer be spent normally.

Travel, restaurants, international real estate, events, and luxury consumption were disrupted.

A portion of this wealth therefore shifted towards financial markets and collectible goods.

It was in this environment that we simultaneously saw an explosion in:

• cryptocurrencies;

• tech stocks;

• real estate in many markets;

• art;

• watches;

• fine wines;

• rare whiskies.

Whisky did not obviously rise only because of quantitative easing.

But the monetary context probably amplified a phenomenon that already had its own fundamentals.

III. Why whisky was particularly well placed to benefit from this liquidity

This is where the essential difference between whisky and other spirits appears.

Whisky already had a relatively structured collectors' market.

Collectors had:

• precisely identified references;

• clearly indicated ages;

• reputable distilleries;

• single malts;

• single casks;

• independent bottlings;

• closed distilleries;

• an auction history.

In other words, the market knew how to identify rarity.

This is extremely important for a heritage asset.

An investor can hardly speculate effectively on a rarity that cannot be measured.

Whisky, on the other hand, has an almost perfect nomenclature for collecting:

distillery + age + year + cask + bottler + bottle number.

A bottle can therefore become comparable to a financial reference.

The market knows what has been sold before and at what price.

This is one of the reasons why whisky has been much more easily financialized than Cognac or Calvados.

IV. Rare Whisky 101: the figure that shows the scale of the phenomenon

The phenomenon is not just theoretical.

In 2020, Knight Frank reported that its Rare Whisky 100 index, calculated with Rare Whisky 101, had risen by 586% over ten years, with an additional +11% over the previous twelve months and +3% since the beginning of 2020.

This figure is spectacular.

It shows that the increase had begun before Covid.

This is an essential nuance.

Quantitative easing therefore did not create the rare whisky market.

It probably contributed to accelerating and amplifying an already growing market.

The correct causality is therefore rather:

real rarity + globalization of demand + collecting culture + secondary market + global liquidity = structural increase

then:

low rates + abundance of liquidity + increase in wealth = cyclical amplification.

This distinction will be fundamental for understanding the next phase.

V. The problem of money: the search for a store of value

This is where the hypothesis becomes more interesting.

Why has gold also risen sharply?

Why has Bitcoin exploded?

Why have certain collectibles simultaneously increased?

Part of the answer can be formulated as a search for a store of value.

However, one must be precise.

Gold has a historical monetary function.

Bitcoin seeks to reproduce certain properties of a rare and decentralized currency.

Whisky is not a currency.

Cognac is not a currency.

A bottle does not allow you to pay your taxes or buy a house.

But they have a common characteristic:

their available quantity cannot be instantly increased by a central bank.

A distillery cannot produce a 40-year-old whisky in 2026.

An old Cognac stock cannot be reproduced.

An old vintage cannot be recreated.

This impossibility of quickly creating supply gives these products a particular heritage property.

VI. But "flight from currency" does not mean "all assets rise together"

This is where we must avoid drawing an overly simplistic conclusion.

Gold, Bitcoin, and spirits have sometimes moved in the same direction.

But they do not have the same drivers.

Gold is strongly influenced by:

• real rates;

• central bank purchases;

• inflation;

• the dollar;

• geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin is much more sensitive to:

• global liquidity;

• risk appetite;

• institutional flows;

• regulation;

• its own market dynamics.

Rare spirits depend more on:

• household wealth;

• credit;

• luxury demand;

• stock availability;

• speculation;

• auction liquidity.

There is therefore a common macro factor, but not an identical mechanism.

VII. 2022: The Monetary Reversal

The year 2022 represents the true test of this hypothesis.

Inflation became strong enough to trigger a radical shift in monetary policy.

Central banks raised their rates.

The price of money increased.

The opportunity cost of capital rose.

And investors began to re-evaluate assets that produce no income.

This phenomenon is particularly visible in speculative assets.

The rare whisky market corrected.

The most speculative references were the most vulnerable.

This development is important: physical rarity did not disappear in 2022.

A 30-year-old Macallan did not suddenly become more common.

A closed distillery did not resume production.

Historical stocks did not increase.

It was the price the market was willing to pay for this rarity that changed.

This is the most convincing proof that the price of rare spirits includes a macroeconomic component.

VIII. The case of gold is different — and particularly instructive

Gold helps us understand why the notion of "safe haven" must be used with caution.

In 2025, gold had an exceptional year: the average annual LBMA price reached approximately $3,431 per ounce, up 44% year-on-year, after 53 new historical records during the year.

In 2026, the movement continued before a significant correction.

The LBMA PM price reached a peak of $5,405 per ounce on January 29, 2026, before falling back to around $4,002 at the end of June.

But gold remains supported by central bank purchases and concerns about fiscal stability, geopolitical tensions, and currency depreciation.

Gold therefore has a much more direct store of value function than spirits.

This is why it would be excessive to say:

"whisky is liquid gold."

It is rather:

"whisky can benefit from some of the same wealth flows that support gold, but with much less liquidity and much more specific risk."

IX. What about Bitcoin?

Bitcoin represents the other extreme.

It is extremely liquid.

It is traded 24 hours a day.

Its supply is limited by its protocol.

But its volatility is considerably higher than that of gold.

It therefore illustrates another consequence of global liquidity:

the more sensitive an asset is to liquidity, the more violent its movements can be when that liquidity reverses.

Bitcoin has experienced cycles of increase and decrease that are incomparable to those of spirits.

In 2026, its price remains well below its 2025 peak, with high volatility.

Whisky is much less volatile because its market is much less liquid.

But this low liquidity has a downside:

an illiquid asset can remain overvalued or undervalued for a long time.

X. Why spirits may consolidate while gold continues to rise

This is probably one of the most interesting phenomena currently.

If the hypothesis of a search for a store of value is correct, why doesn't whisky automatically rise with gold?

Because whisky has a factor that gold does not:

consumption demand.

A bottle must find someone who genuinely wishes to drink it, collect it, or resell it.

The gold market is global, homogeneous, and extremely liquid.

The market for a 50-year-old bottle of Cognac is much more fragmented.

It depends on Chinese, Japanese, European, and American customers, importers, taxes, and tastes.

Rare whisky therefore lies between two worlds:

heritage asset + consumer product.

It is precisely this dual nature that explains its particular volatility.

XI. Cognac: same monetary factor, but specific shock

Cognac demonstrates that a macroeconomic factor is never sufficient.

The market also benefited from years of strong luxury growth.

However, it has a much greater geographical dependence, particularly on China.

In July 2025, China imposed anti-dumping duties of up to 34.9% on European brandies for a period of five years; however, the main producers benefited from a specific regime linked to their price commitments.

Even before this definitive measure, Cognac exports to China had already fallen sharply: in 2024, the value had dropped by 23.8% and volumes by 9.6% according to data reported by Reuters.

Cognac has therefore simultaneously suffered from:

normalization of luxury demand + monetary tightening + Chinese slowdown + trade tensions.

It is therefore impossible to use its correction as proof of a general decline in interest in heritage assets.

The Chinese shock is a specific factor.

XII. The real variable to watch: global liquidity

For the merchant, the most interesting macroeconomic variable is ultimately not just the ECB or Fed policy rate.

It's the combination of:

real rates + money supply growth + credit + financial wealth + affluent consumer confidence.

When these variables evolve favorably, rare assets generally benefit from a more supportive environment.

But with a time lag.

A rate cut doesn't necessarily make a bottle go up the next day.

It requires:

1. financial wealth to increase;

2. confidence to return;

3. buyers to start taking risks again;

4. existing stocks to be absorbed;

5. prices to become attractive again.

This is why the spirits market can remain depressed even as monetary policy begins to ease.

XIII. An important hypothesis for 2026-2030

We can now formulate a forward-looking hypothesis.

If the coming years see:

• a stabilization or decrease in real rates;

• an increase in global liquidity;

• a recovery in the wealth of affluent households;

• a decrease in inflation;

• a normalization of Asian trade;

• a reduction in accumulated stocks at importers;

then rare spirits could enter a new phase of revaluation.

But this time, the increase should probably not be uniform.

It should favor bottles with unquestionable rarity.

The market could therefore shift from:

"everything rare goes up"

to:

"only rarities whose value is recognized by the secondary market go up again."

This is a considerable difference.

XIV. What this means for a merchant

For a professional, the macroeconomic conclusion is not:

"buy whisky because rates will fall."

That would be far too simplistic.

The correct conclusion is:

Monetary cycles partly determine when it is interesting to buy; the intrinsic characteristics of the bottle determine what to buy.

This is exactly why two levels of analysis must be separated.

Macro determines the "when."

Rates.

Liquidity.

Inflation.

Exchange rate.

Wealth.

Confidence.

Economic cycle.

Micro determines the "what."

Distillery.

Age.

Vintage.

Cask.

Provenance.

Available volume.

Reputation.

Secondary market.

Purchase price.

Liquidity.

This distinction will be essential in the second article.

XV. A new phase of selection

The collectible spirits market is thus emerging from an exceptional period.

Years of extremely low rates encouraged the search for yield and diversification.

The pandemic accelerated this dynamic.

The rise in interest rates starting in 2022 led to an initial selection.

And the market now seems to be entering a phase where rarity alone is no longer enough.

Current data from Rare Whisky 101 clearly illustrate this change: the Icon 100, composed of emblematic bottles regularly traded at auction, still shows a very high total performance since the index's creation, but its twelve-month performance is negative.

At the same time, Knight Frank estimates that collectible markets are beginning to regain some stability, with collectors' interest shifting towards rarity and, above all, provenance.

This is probably the best description of the new cycle.

Conclusion: Money explains some of the rise, but not which

It would be excessive to claim that quantitative easing "created" the rise in whisky, Cognac, or other spirits.

The phenomenon is more subtle.

Whisky possessed real rarity, a collecting culture, and a secondary market before 2020.

But the monetary environment of 2008-2021 provided exceptional fuel for this dynamic.

Low rates reduced the opportunity cost of immobilizing capital.

Abundant liquidity increased asset values.

Rising wealth created new buyers.

The pandemic accelerated the phenomenon.

Then the monetary reversal of 2022 showed that these assets also had a cyclical component.

Gold continues to benefit from its monetary status and central bank purchases today. Bitcoin remains a much more speculative asset, extremely sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite. Spirits, on the other hand, are in an intermediate position: much less liquid, but backed by physical rarity and real consumption value.

It is probably this combination that makes the market particularly interesting.

Money can lose purchasing power.

Central banks can create liquidity.

Rates can rise and then fall.

But a 50-year-old whisky from a closed distillery cannot be recreated.

An old Cognac from a historical stock cannot be reproduced.

A vintage 1960 Armagnac will remain a 1960 Armagnac.

Macroeconomics therefore determines part of the price the market is willing to pay.

But microeconomics determines what will remain rare when the next wave of liquidity arrives.

And this is precisely where the second question begins:

Among whisky, Cognac, Armagnac, and Calvados, which spirits today have real rarity that is still insufficiently valued by the market?